The Baseball Phanatic

Possible Pitching Upgrades for the Phillies

 As we enter the second full month of the 2019 MLB season, it seems like the right time to look ahead to the trade deadline. While the Phillies are currently in first place in the NL East and have a strong lineup, I still have some concerns about pitching. While my biggest concerns are with the state of the bullpen, I do believe that the team should make it a priority to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline. In regards to the bullpen, the team should be getting back at least Victor Arano and David Robertson before the All-Star Break. Hopefully, Tommy Hunter will rejoin the team by then as well. Once those pieces rejoin the team, the bullpen will be in much better shape. However, there is no help coming for the starting rotation, and any upgrades will have to be through trades. 

On the season, the current five starters (Eickhoff, Arrieta, Eflin, Nola, and Velasquez) have a combined ERA of 3.86. However, as a whole, the rotation has been better over the last three weeks, posting an ERA of 3.28 during that span. Eickhoff has been strong since coming back from the minors. Over the last three weeks, he is 1-1 with an ERA of 2.50, a FIP of 1.78 and a WHIP of 1.05. Arrieta has not fared quite as well over the last three weeks. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 4.32, a FIP of 3.66, and a WHIP of 1.32. Eflin is 2-2 with an ERA of 2.42, a FIP of 4.33, and a WHIP of 1.08. Nola has improved greatly over his last few starts and is starting to look like the Nola of 2018 once again. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.25, a FIP of 3.72, and a WHIP of 1.33 over the last three weeks. Vince Velasquez has struggled mightily over the last three weeks. He is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA, a FIP of 6.20 and a WHIP of 1.75. 

While I feel confident in the abilities of Nola, Arrieta, and Eickhoff for the remainder of the season. I feel less sure of Eflin and Velasquez. While Eflin’s ERA over the last few weeks is quite low, his FIP is quite high in comparison. If you are a fan of FIP, this is a bit troubling and could point to a possibility of a much higher ERA down the stretch. Velasquez is the most troubling of the bunch. Not only are his numbers much higher than many would like, but he has also struggled to pitch deep into games. While this is not a new phenomenon for Velasquez, the team is in a position to win and cannot continue to have a pitcher on staff who is so inconsistent. 

At the moment, it looks like the Phillies are most in need of a replacement for Velasquez, however, anything could change between now and the trade deadline. After looking at the potential players who could be available at the deadline, here is my list of best and most likely candidate. 

Madison Bumgarner

There is no question that Madison Bumgarner is an elite pitcher. It is also safe to say that the Giants are looking to trade him. On the year he is 2-4 with an ERA of 3.99. He has a FIP of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.148. While Bumgarner is not the same pitcher he was a few years ago, he is still a good, consistent pitcher that would help the team. However, as much as Bumgarner would benefit the Phillies starting rotation, the Phillies would be trading valuable minor league prospects for only half of a season of Bumgarner since he will be a free agent after the 2019 season. It is possible that they could try to re-sign him, but that is not a guarantee. 

Marcus Stroman

The Blue Jays have been rumored to be shopping Stroman, among others. I, for one, am a huge fan of Stroman, and I believe he would be an asset to the Phillies starting rotation. He has struggled at times throughout the years, but, ultimately, he has the potential to be an elite pitcher. This season, Stroman is 1-5, however, this is not an accurate representation of the season he is having. He is currently sporting an ERA of 2.96 with a FIP of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.29. If he were pitching in front of a team with more success, he would clearly have a much better record than 1-5. While it would cost the Phillies greatly to acquire Stroman, I believe that it would be worth it in the end. Stroman would not be a free agent until after the 2020 season so he will not just be a rental for this season. 

Mike Minor 

Minor is currently pitching for the Rangers, who may be looking to move him before the deadline. Minor has a record of 3-2 with a minute ERA of 2.40. His FIP is 3.49 and his WHIP is 0.945. He is having a really good season and would be a welcomed addition to the Phillies starting rotation. Just like Stroman, he would cost the Phillies valuable prospects, but he is also under contract until after the 2020 season. 

Robbie Ray

Arizona Diamondback, Robbie Ray might be the toughest player for the Phillies to acquire via trade, however, he would definitely be a great acquisition if the Phillies could pull off a trade for him. Ray is currently 2-1 with an ERA of 3.79, a FIP of 3.85, and a WHIP of 1.289. He is eligible for free agency following the 2020 season, which means he would be with the team all of next season as well. The D-Backs have seemed reluctant to trade him, in the past, so who knows what they might do at the deadline. 

Matthew Boyd

This may not seem like an obvious choice; however, the Tigers may be willing to part with Boyd at the deadline for the right price. On the year Boyd is currently 3-2 with an ERA of 3.05, a FIP of only 2.10, and a WHIP of only 0.992. He is having a very good season. While he has struggled in the past, he may be worth a chance at the right price. He is under team control until after the 2022 season, which would be great for the Phillies. 

While there are many other possible trade options for the Phillies, these five seem to me to be the best fits for the team and the most likely to be traded. However, there are plenty of other good possibilities out there, so who knows. I did not include Dallas Keuchel in this list primarily because he is not a trade target, and also because I think that the Phillies would be much better off trading for one of the aforementioned pitchers than signing Dallas Keuchel. We’ll have to see how this all shakes out, but hopefully, by the time a trade happens, we are still talking about improving the first place Phillies!

*All stats were obtained from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference