Since I began this article a few hours before the Phillies crushing 1-15 loss to the Nationals on Wednesday, April 10th, I felt a bit more optimistic when I began writing then I did when I finished writing this right after that excruciating loss. Nevertheless, here are 7 of my observations following the first 2 weeks of the Phillies regular season.
1. Line up consistency
One thing is certain, the Phillies are putting out a much more consistent lineup on a daily basis than they did a season ago. The 2018 Phillies used 95 different lineups over their 162-game season. While 95 unique lineups are not quite as drastic and the MLB leading 155 different lineups that the Dodgers used in 2018, it is still a lot of different configurations. While Kapler was criticized at times for varying the lineup so often, it is a bit difficult to put the blame solely on Kapler considering the player he had at his disposal.
So far this season, the Phillies have put out 3 different lineups over 11 games (obviously not including pitchers). The team used the same lineup 9 times. The only two lineup variations came when Knapp replaced Realmuto in one starting lineup and Kingery replace Hernandez in one game. While it is clear from the fact that the pennant-winning Dodgers had the most unique lineups in 2018, that lineup variations do not necessarily predict how a team will perform, the Phillie’s lineup differences in 2018 were based on an ineffective lineup rather than strategy. The stable lineup thus far in 2019 shows that the Phillies have benefited from an effective starting 9. Kapler does not need to consistently vary the lineup in hopes that the team will produce more. This group of Phillies players, for the most part, has been very effective offensively, which is very promising. Hopefully, the offensive will continue to produce and stay healthy, which will, in turn, limit the lineup variations for the remainder of the season. I am sure the players must feel more comfortable know when they are batting and where they are playing and that they are playing in the most comfortable position.
2. Offense
While I have my share of concerns about the Phillies this season, the offense is not one of those concerns. Throwing out the offensive stats from yesterday’s brutal and confusing loss, the team slash line for the first 10 games of 2019 is .256/.362/.476 with 17 home runs. Last year over 162 games the team slash line was 234/.314/.393 with 186 home runs. The numbers so far this season are definitely an improvement over the numbers last year. Of course, adding Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, and J.T. Realmuto definitely did not hurt. While the numbers are better than last season, I feel that it is possible for them to improve even more if a few players begin playing a bit more consistently.
The biggest cause of excitement is the number of home runs this team is hitting. As noted, the team has already hit 17 home runs, which puts them on pace to hit 275 HRs over the course of the season. If the team hits anywhere near that it would be a huge increase of the 186, they hit last year. The even more promising aspect of the offense is that production is coming from the bottom of the lineup just as much as from the top. While there are a few hitters that are not producing as much as expected (McCutchen is hitting: .211/.368/.421, Realmuto is hitting: .233/.342/.342, and Hernandez is hitting: .194/.268/.278), there is reason to believe that all three will figure it out based on their track records. Were the three struggling hitters to find their swings, this offense would be positively lethal. This offense has shown that it is as potent as anticipated and I, for one, cannot wait to see what they are capable of for the duration of the season.
3. Starting Pitching
While the offense has me positively excited about this team, the pitching has me ready to the throw in the towel. Going into the season, I was a bit concerned about both the starting pitching and the bullpen. Despite a good showing from the starting rotation in 2018, it was clear that the starting rotation, minus Nola, is inconsistent. While Nola, Velasquez, Pivetta, and Eflin had all pitched a career-high number of innings, all but Nola showed that while they can pitch effectively, at times, they can also be quite frustrating. Both Velaquez and Pivetta often struggled to pitch deep in games. Even Arrieta struggled for a good portion of last season. With all of this information, it seemed to baffle many that the Phils did not acquire an additional arm for the starting rotation.
After the first 11 games, it is clear that the concern was warranted. The only solid starter has been Zach Eflin who has 2 starts with a total of 12 innings and only 1 earned run. His ERA is sitting at 0.75 for the season. While this is a small sample size, the results have been surprisingly positive for Eflin. Arrieta has not pitched pretty well also. He has pitched 13 innings over 2 starts and has allowed 4 runs, which puts his ERA at 2.77. Again, this is only 2 starts, but I would be ecstatic if Arrieta continues to pitch this well for the rest of the season. However, the other three starters have been entirely concerning over the first 2 weeks of action.
Velasquez only has 1 start and 1 inning pitching out of the bullpen. He has pitched a total of 6 innings and allowed a total of 3 runs, which puts his ERA at 3.0. This doesn’t sound troubling, however, the 3 runs all came during his start on April 8th when he only pitched 5 innings. I would be fine with the team’s starting allowing 3 runs during his start if he could manage to pitch deeper into games. However, Velasquez is continuing his 2018 trend of needing a ton of pitches to put batters away, especially after 2 strikes, which means he is often not able to pitch deep into games. Pivetta has been even more troubling. Over 3 starts and a total of 13.1 innings, Pivetta is sporting an ERA of 9.45 after allowing a total of 15 runs and 14 earned runs. Furthermore, the deepest Pivetta was able to pitch in his 3 starts was 5 innings on April 5th. Between Velasquez and Pivetta, the bullpen is being used a ton. Finally, the Aaron Nola we have all come to know and love seems to be missing and I need him to return (more on that later). The issues with the starting rotation have me wondering if this team should have ignored the starting pitching in the offseason and if the can afford to wait until the trade deadline for help. The only possible ray of hope is that Eickhoff is nearly ready to return to majors, though I wonder if he can regain his past successes after a long pitching hiatus.
4. Aaron Nola
Nola has been the Phillies most impressive and consistent pitcher over the last few seasons. Coming in 3rd in Cy Young voting last season, it was clear going into 2019 that Nola was the teams ace. However, Nola has struggled in his first 3 starts, which has caused some to press the panic button. Nola has pitched a total of 15.1 innings in those 3 starts. He has allowed 12 runs, 11 of which were earned run, putting his ERA at 6.46. On April 3rd he pitched only 3 innings giving up 6 earned runs on 5 hits and allowing 3 home runs. None of these numbers are characteristic of Nola’s past performances. Last season, Nola never allowed more than 4 runs in a game and only allowed 4 runs in 4 different games over 33 starts. Therefore, it is quite alarming that he has allowed so many runs already this season.
While many are concerned, I am not quite ready to panic after 3 starts. Throughout his time as a Phillie, Nola has never struggled on a consistent basis. Therefore, I am hopeful that he will be able to right the ship sooner rather than later. The other bit of my optimism is that his velocity is pretty consistent from that of his previous seasons. The most concerning of his pitches is his curveball, which was previously one of his most successful pitches. However, this season, his curve is being hit at a much higher rate. The consistent velocity has assuaged my fears that he may be injured, which means that his struggles are most likely based on his mechanics. Though I am not yet panicking about Nola, I would feel much better if he has a strong outing in his next start. If his struggles continue too much longer, I will be more concerned.
5. The Bullpen
I feel that I am only talking about negatives where Phillies pitching is concerned, however, I have serious concerns about the pitching top to bottom. While the bullpen has been called on more than anyone would have liked over the first 2 weeks, there are still huge concerns about their ability to minimize runs and pitch effectively for the remainder of the season. Unlike the starting pitching, the bullpen was addressed, albeit only slightly, in the offseason. The team added David Robertson, Juan Nicasio, and Jose Alvarez before the season began. The most effective relievers so far have been Adam Morgan and Pat Neshek who have ERAs of 0.0 and 1.59 respectively. However, it is widely known that Neshek refuses to pitch 2 days in a row, which means the team has to be very selective about when they use Neshek knowing that if they use him, they won’t have him the next day. While I understand Neshek’s reasons for not wanting to pitch in back to back games, it is hugely unfortunate for the team.
Hector Neris and David Robertson struggled early on in the season, but have seemed a bit stronger and more consistent over the past few games. However, Neris did need 30 pitches to get 3 outs in his last outing. All of the other relievers have struggled mightily in the first 2 weeks of the season. Jose Alvarez is sporting an ERA of 12.46 while Edubray Ramos and Seranthony Dominguez both have an ERA of 9.0. Juan Nicasio has an ERA of 3.6 but has been less than stellar when the team needed him. On a more amusing note, Aaron Altherr has an ERA of 9 in his first ever pitching appearance on April 10th, where he was able to strike out 2 batters. Considering the state of the bullpen, I am kind of encouraged by Altherr’s pitching ability (obviously a joke). Surprisingly, a position player does have a better ERA than an actual reliever on the team. All in all, I am extremely concerned about the state of the bullpen and how it is being managed. If the pen cannot fix it struggles soon, they are going to put a lot of future games in jeopardy.
6. Gabe Kapler
It is safe to say that Kapler has fared better in his first 11 games this season than last season. While I am far more optimistic about Kapler’s performance this year than I was at the beginning of last season, I am not entirely convinced that he is the skipper this club needs. He is showing that he can put out a more consistent lineup on a daily basis, which is a good thing, however, part of this is that he was given a much more talented group of players this season. The lineup can basically make itself at this point.
I also appreciate Kapler’s increased honesty and bluntness this season. I felt, at times, last season that Kapler would bend the truth and gloss over glaring concerns, however, this season he seems to be more realistic and critical of players when necessary, which I respect.
My biggest concern about Kapler is the management of the pitching staff. He seems to be unsure of when to remove starters and is still using a ton of relievers when it is not entirely necessary. While he not working with an exceptionally strong group of relievers, I am still not convinced at his ability to effectively manage the pitching staff as a whole.
7. This team is fun!
Back to the positivity. This team is entirely entertaining. I forgot how much fun I can have watching the Phillies. Between the fun handshakes and the cool socks, this team seems to be enjoying almost every minute of every game. The team seems to be working better as a cohesive unit, which shows in the improved defense. Obviously, adding Bryce Harper did not hurt the team’s fun factor, but as a unit, this group seems to be bringing the joy back to Citizens Bank Park, which is greatly appreciated. Though the last few games have not been stellar, I find this team to be both refreshing and encouraging and I cannot wait to see what other antics and fun times are ahead.
8. The National League East is the best division in baseball and that’s not great news for the Phillies.
Just when everything starts looking up for Phillies baseball, the National League East has quietly become the best division in all of baseball, which is not good for the Phillies. There is a lot of good, young talent on the Washington Nationals. The Mets also have a pretty solid lineup with very good pitching. Other than the Marlins, the National League East is a hugely competitive division. It is not going to be easy for the Phillies to win the division, and while I believe they can do it, it will take strong performances from all of the heavy hitters on the team and consistent pitching. While the NL East is going to be difficult to win, it will be a fun ride for the Phillies filled with competitive and entertaining matchups.
9. Final Thoughts
While I have some concerns about this team, I still believe in their ability. I have still very excited and optimistic about what this team can accomplish during the remaining 151 games of the season!
*All stats used in this post were from Baseball Reference
The Baseball Phanatic 