As I begin writing this, I cannot stop smiling. Not only is the 2019 Baseball season just a couple of days away, but I also keep remembering how much this team has improved since the end of the 2018 season. It almost feels like this is a brand-new team, which fills me with incredible joy. The number of upgrades added to this roster also made Spring Training seem so long. I just wanted it to end so that I can see this team play in real games. While I do feel confident with the moves the Phillies made in the off-season, by no means do I feel that this team is a sure-fire bet to win the World Series, but we have definitely come a long way!
During the off-season, the team added several new players. The first major acquisition occurred on December 3rd when the Phillies acquired shortstop Jean Segura and pitchers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for first baseman Carlos Santana and shortstop J.P. Crawford. Of these players acquired, Jean Segura will be the team’s starting shortstop and Juan Nicasio seems to be a lock for the bullpen. Last season, Jean Segura had a slash line of .304/.341/.415 with a WAR of 4.3 in 144 games, which are very good numbers. His Steamer projections for the 2019 season are .284/.330/.415 with a WAR of 2.4 which are pretty comparable to last season’s number and a huge improvement over shortstop, Scott Kingery’s numbers last season, which was .226/.267/.338 with a WAR of -1.3.
On December 6th the team traded Luis Garcia to the Angels for Jose Alvarez. I, for one, completely forgot about this trade. It definitely was not the most memorable moment of the off-season, but the team did manage to trade Garcia, whose time was clearly up with the Phillies, and the team did add another LHP in Alvarez. While Alvarez did have a rocky Spring Training, he did pitch in 76 games last season with a record of 6-4. He had an ERA of 2.71 and a WHIP of 1.159. He should be a good addition to the bullpen.
One of the bigger (definitely not the biggest) acquisitions was the signing of free agent, Andrew McCutchen on December 12th. While McCutchen is probably not the same player he was when he won the NL MVP in 2013, he is still a very good player and a very good addition to the outfield. Last season McCutchen his a combined .255/.368/.422 with 20 HRs in 155 games while playing for both the Giants and the Yankees. He had a WAR of 2.8. While his offensive numbers are not a huge improvement over last season’s left fielder, Rhys Hoskins who hit .246/.354/.496 with 34 HRs in left field in 2018, his defensive improvements will be enormous. McCutchen’s Steamer projections for the 2019 season are .263/.362/.475 with a WAR of 2.8. I, for one, would be quite happy with those numbers.
The biggest pitching acquisition was the signing of free agent RHP David Robertson on January 3rd. Robertson is another solid late inning relief pitcher. Robertson had a record of 8-3 with 5 saves over 69 games. He had an ERA of .323 and a WHIP of 1.033. He will hopefully help to strengthen the back end of the rotation and add some much-needed stability.
The Phillies completed their trading success with their second biggest acquisition of the offseason. On February 7th the Phillies traded Jorge Alfaro and Sixto Sanchez to the Miami Marlins for stud catcher J.T. Realmuto. Realmuto is arguably one of the best catchers in baseball. Though this trade was a bit painful with the trading of the teams’ number 1 prospect, Sanchez and fan favorite catcher, Alfaro, it was definitely worth it. I was a bit hesitant at first, but after watching Realmuto in Spring Training, I truly feel this was a great move by the team. Last season, Realmuto hit .277/.340/.484 with 21 HRs in 125 games and had a WAR of 4.8. His Steamer projections for the 2019 season are .269/.325/.457 with 20 HRs and a WAR of 3.8.
Finally, the absolute biggest acquisition of the offseason, and honestly, one of the biggest Phillies free agent signings ever was, right fielder, Bryce Harper on March 2nd. I don’t think I need to emphasize how big of a signing this was for the franchise, but this was HUGE! Last season Harper had a bit of a down season, but still managed to hit .249/.393/.496 with 34 HRs and a WAR of 1.3. Even with a down season, it’s safe to say that Harper will be a huge improvement over right fielder Nick Williams. Harper’s Steamer projections for 2019 are .261/.395/.530 with 35 HRs and a WAR of 4.6.
It is safe to say that the additions the Phillies made in the off-season in addition to the talent that already exists on the team in Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Nola, Maikel Franco, and Odubel Herrera that this is a much-improved line over the 2018 Phillies. While there are still some concerns with the pitching, I’ll get to that later, the offensive should be a potent one. Barring any injuries or prolonged slumps, it appears that the team will mercifully have a pretty consistent lineup this season. The lineup most days should be:
McCutchen LF
Segura SS
Harper RF
Hoskins 1B
Realmuto C
Herrera CF
Hernandez 2B
Franco 3B
If this lineup sticks, it will be a very solid lineup top to bottom. The fact that the bottom three consists of Herrera, Hernandez, and Franco all of which are competent hitters, is a very good sign. The bench appears to consist of backup catcher, Andrew Knapp, utility player, Scott Kingery, and outfielders Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams. The bench is not overly impressive especially considering the lack of infield depth; however, all of these players had a pretty decent Spring and any could surprise this season.
While there is much optimism about the Phillies offense going into the 2019 season, I am still a bit apprehensive about the pitching situations. The team is set to go with a starting rotation of Aaron Nola, Nick Pivetta, Jake Arrieta, Zack Eflin, and Vince Velasquez. While the lineup as a whole had a pretty successful season last year, they did fall apart towards the end of the season. Arrieta had a pretty up and down season in 2018, and the hope is that he can be more consistent this season. Besides Nola, all of the other pitchers had very streaky seasons in 2019. So, while there is optimism surrounding all five of the starting pitchers, I am unsure if they can all duplicate their successes of 2018. The team, as of now, has not acquired any starting pitching options in the off-season, which I think would have been helpful. There is also not much pitching depth in AAA either. The most likely pitchers to be given an option in the majors are Jerad Eickhoff, Enyel De Los Santos, Ranger Suarez, and Drew Anderson. If this team has a weakness, it would be starting pitching.
More attention was spent on relief pitching this off-season. While the bullpen is improved over last season, there is also some concern there as well. David Robertson was a great addition. However, Tommy Hunter was not great last season and will begin this season on the injured list. Seranthony Dominguez was very good at times last year, but also had his fair share of struggles, which was also the case with Pat Neshek. The rest of the bullpen will most likely consist of Adam Morgan, Jose Alvarez, Hector Neris, Juan Nicasio, and Edubray Ramos. Again, this is a group of pitchers that has potential but lacks consistency.
The real question seems to be: How will the Phillies do in 2019? According to Fangraphs, the Phillies are projected to have the 8th best record in baseball. They are projected to have the 4th best record in the National League and come in 2nd in the NL East right behind the Nationals. Fangraphs also projected a win-loss total of 86 and 76. While I hope the Phillies go all the way to the World Series and win in 4 games, I realize that is probably not likely. However, 86 wins is still pretty good and will be 6 more wins than they had in 2018. While 86 wins seems fairly accurate to me, I am not ruling out the possibility that certain players will play greater than their projections. It is possible if all goes well that the team might have a few more wins than projected. My ultimate goal is for the team to at least make the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Beyond stats and projects, I think we can all agree that the 2019 Phillies will be fun to watch!
*All stats, figures, and dates are from Fangraphs, Baseball Reference, and MLB
The Baseball Phanatic 